{"id":67,"date":"2026-01-15T21:36:49","date_gmt":"2026-01-16T03:36:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jamesshare.com\/?p=67"},"modified":"2026-01-21T10:36:25","modified_gmt":"2026-01-21T16:36:25","slug":"%e4%b8%89%e4%b8%aa%e9%a2%a0%e8%a6%86%e7%9b%b4%e8%a7%89%e7%9a%84%e6%95%b0%e5%ad%a6%e6%82%96%e8%ae%ba%ef%bc%9a%e5%bd%93%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87%e6%ac%ba%e9%aa%97%e5%a4%a7%e8%84%91","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jamesshare.com\/?p=67","title":{"rendered":"\u4e09\u4e2a\u98a0\u8986\u76f4\u89c9\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u6096\u8bba\uff1a\u5f53\u6982\u7387\u6b3a\u9a97\u5927\u8111"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>\u4eba\u7c7b\u5927\u8111\u5929\u751f\u65e0\u6cd5\u51c6\u786e\u4f30\u8ba1\u6982\u7387\u548c\u6307\u6570\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u8ba4\u77e5\u7f3a\u9677\u5df2\u88ab\u4e25\u8c28\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u7814\u7a76\u53cd\u590d\u9a8c\u8bc1\u3002<\/strong> \u4ece\u4ec5\u970023\u4eba\u5c31\u80fd\u8ba9\u751f\u65e5\u91cd\u5408\u6982\u7387\u8d85\u8fc750%\u7684&#8221;\u751f\u65e5\u6096\u8bba&#8221;\uff0c\u5230\u8ba9\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u96c6\u4f53\u51fa\u9519\u7684&#8221;\u8499\u63d0\u970d\u5c14\u95ee\u9898&#8221;\uff0c\u518d\u5230\u4e00\u5f20\u7eb8\u6298\u53e042\u6b21\u5c31\u80fd\u5230\u8fbe\u6708\u7403\u7684\u6307\u6570\u589e\u957f\u6f14\u793a\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u4e09\u4e2a\u7ecf\u5178\u6848\u4f8b\u6df1\u523b\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u4eba\u7c7b\u8ba4\u77e5\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u76f2\u533a\u3002\u672c\u6587\u57fa\u4e8e\u82f1\u6587\u548c\u6cd5\u6587\u5b66\u672f\u6587\u732e\uff0c\u5168\u9762\u5256\u6790\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53cd\u76f4\u89c9\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u539f\u7406\u3001\u5386\u53f2\u8d77\u6e90\u3001\u5b9e\u9a8c\u9a8c\u8bc1\u548c\u73b0\u5b9e\u5e94\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>\u7b2c\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff1a\u751f\u65e5\u6096\u8bba\u2014\u2014253\u6b21\u6bd4\u8f83\u7684\u9b54\u529b<\/h2>\n<h3>\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e4823\u4eba\u5c31\u8db3\u591f\uff1f<\/h3>\n<p>\u751f\u65e5\u6096\u8bba\u662f<strong>\u771f\u5b9e\u6096\u8bba<\/strong>\uff08veridical paradox\uff09\uff1a\u8868\u9762\u770b\u4f3c\u8352\u8c2c\uff0c\u5374\u7ecf\u5f97\u8d77\u6570\u5b66\u9a8c\u8bc1\u3002\u5173\u952e\u6d1e\u89c1\u5728\u4e8e\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u5e76\u975e\u8be2\u95ee&#8221;\u8c01\u548c\u6211\u540c\u4e00\u5929\u751f\u65e5&#8221;\uff0c\u800c\u662f&#8221;\u4efb\u610f\u4e24\u4eba\u662f\u5426\u540c\u5929\u751f\u65e5&#8221;\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u662f\u4e24\u4e2a\u622a\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5f53\u623f\u95f4\u91cc\u670923\u4eba\u65f6\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u914d\u5bf9\u6570\u91cf\u4e3a\uff1a<strong>C(23,2) = 23\u00d722\u00f72 = 253\u5bf9<\/strong>\u3002\u4eba\u7c7b\u76f4\u89c9\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u6e90\u4e8e\u7ebf\u6027\u601d\u7ef4\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u672c\u80fd\u5730\u60f3\u5230&#8221;23\u6b21\u6bd4\u8f83&#8221;\uff08\u4ec5\u6d89\u53ca\u81ea\u5df1\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86\u53e6\u5916231\u6b21\u4e0d\u6d89\u53ca\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u540e\u8005\u5360\u603b\u6bd4\u8f83\u6570\u7684<strong>91%<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7cbe\u786e\u6982\u7387\u8ba1\u7b97\u516c\u5f0f<\/strong>\uff1a\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u751f\u65e5\u90fd\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e3a P(\u65e0\u91cd\u5408) = (365\/365) \u00d7 (364\/365) \u00d7 (363\/365) \u00d7 &#8230; \u00d7 (343\/365)\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u81f3\u5c11\u4e24\u4eba\u91cd\u5408\u7684\u6982\u7387 P = 1 &#8211; P(\u65e0\u91cd\u5408)\u3002<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>\u4eba\u6570<\/th>\n<th>\u91cd\u5408\u6982\u7387<\/th>\n<th>\u914d\u5bf9\u6570<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>23<\/td>\n<td><strong>50.73%<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>253<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>50<\/td>\n<td><strong>97.0%<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>1,225<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>70<\/td>\n<td><strong>99.9%<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>2,415<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>100<\/td>\n<td>99.99997%<\/td>\n<td>4,950<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h3>\u5386\u53f2\u6eaf\u6e90\uff1a\u51af\u00b7\u7c73\u585e\u65af\u7684\u8d21\u732e<\/h3>\n<p>\u8be5\u95ee\u9898\u9996\u6b21\u6b63\u5f0f\u53d1\u8868\u4e8e<strong>1939\u5e74<\/strong>\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u662f\u5965\u5730\u5229\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6<strong>\u7406\u67e5\u5fb7\u00b7\u51af\u00b7\u7c73\u585e\u65af<\/strong>\uff08Richard von Mises, 1883-1953\uff09\uff0c\u8f7d\u4e8e\u300a\u4f0a\u65af\u5766\u5e03\u5c14\u5927\u5b66\u79d1\u5b66\u5b66\u9662\u8bc4\u8bba\u300b\uff08<em>Revue de la facult\u00e9 des sciences de l&#8217;Universit\u00e9 d&#8217;Istanbul<\/em>\uff09\u3002\u51af\u00b7\u7c73\u585e\u65af\u66fe\u4efb\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u822a\u7a7a\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u4e0e\u5e94\u7528\u6570\u5b66\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u662f\u6982\u7387\u8bba&#8221;\u9891\u7387\u5b66\u6d3e&#8221;\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u5960\u57fa\u4eba\u3002\u6709\u8bb0\u8f7d\u79f0\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\u54c8\u7f57\u5fb7\u00b7\u8fbe\u6587\u6ce2\u7279\uff08Harold Davenport\uff09\u65e9\u57281927\u5e74\u5c31\u77e5\u6653\u6b64\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u672c\u4eba&#8221;\u4e0d\u6562\u58f0\u79f0\u53d1\u73b0\u6743\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u65e0\u6cd5\u76f8\u4fe1\u8fd9\u95ee\u9898\u6b64\u524d\u4ece\u672a\u88ab\u63d0\u51fa&#8221;\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6cd5\u6587\u5b66\u672f\u6765\u6e90\u4e00\u81f4\u786e\u8ba4\u51af\u00b7\u7c73\u585e\u65af\u7684\u4f18\u5148\u6743\u3002\u6cd5\u56fd\u6570\u5b66\u8bcd\u5178Bibmath.net\u8bb0\u8f7d\uff1a&#8221;\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e00\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u8be6\u7ec6\u7814\u7a76\u5f52\u529f\u4e8e\u7406\u67e5\u5fb7\u00b7\u51af\u00b7\u7c73\u585e\u65af\u3002&#8221;<\/p>\n<h3>\u771f\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u9a8c\u8bc1\uff1a\u4e16\u754c\u676f\u7684\u5b8c\u7f8e\u5b9e\u9a8c<\/h3>\n<p><strong>2014\u5e74FIFA\u4e16\u754c\u676f<\/strong>\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u6700\u5177\u8bf4\u670d\u529b\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff1a32\u652f\u53c2\u8d5b\u961f\u4f0d\u5404\u6709<strong>\u6070\u597d23\u540d\u7403\u5458<\/strong>\u2014\u2014\u5b8c\u7f8e\u5339\u914d\u6096\u8bba\u7684\u5173\u952e\u4eba\u6570\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u4ee4\u4eba\u60ca\u53f9\uff1a<strong>\u6b63\u597d16\u652f\u7403\u961f\uff0850%\uff09<\/strong> \u5b58\u5728\u751f\u65e5\u91cd\u5408\uff0c\u4e0e\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u6d4b\u768450.73%\u51e0\u4e4e\u5b8c\u5168\u543b\u5408\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u4e94\u652f\u7403\u961f\uff08\u963f\u6839\u5ef7\u3001\u6cd5\u56fd\u3001\u4f0a\u6717\u3001\u97e9\u56fd\u3001\u745e\u58eb\uff09\u751a\u81f3\u6709\u4e24\u5bf9\u6216\u66f4\u591a\u91cd\u5408\u3002<\/p>\n<p>2006\u5e74\u4e16\u754c\u676f\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff08\u591a\u7279\u8499\u5fb7\u5927\u5b66\u5b66\u58eb\u8bba\u6587\uff09\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u5168\u90e864\u573a\u6bd4\u8d5b\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0<strong>53%\u7684\u573a\u6b21<\/strong>\u4e2d\u573a\u4e0a\u7403\u5458\u5b58\u5728\u751f\u65e5\u91cd\u5408\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u8377\u5170\u5bf9\u963f\u6839\u5ef7\u4e00\u573a\u5c31\u51fa\u73b0\u4e09\u5bf9\u540c\u751f\u65e5\u7403\u5458\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6559\u5ba4\u9a8c\u8bc1<\/strong>\uff1a\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u6559\u80b2\u5bb6\u5f7c\u5f97\u00b7\u5f17\u5170\u514b\u5c14\u8868\u793a\uff1a&#8221;\u6211\u5728\u8bb2\u5ea7\u4e2d\u5c1d\u8bd5\u8fc7\u7ea620\u6b21\u751f\u65e5\u6096\u8bba\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u53ea\u5931\u8d25\u8fc7\u4e00\u6b21\u3002&#8221;\u300a\u5927\u82f1\u767e\u79d1\u5168\u4e66\u300b\u6307\u51fa\u8be5\u6096\u8bba&#8221;\u51e0\u4e4e\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8ba940\u4eba\u4ee5\u4e0a\u73ed\u7ea7\u7684\u6559\u5e08\u5931\u671b&#8221;\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u5bc6\u7801\u5b66\u5e94\u7528\uff1a\u751f\u65e5\u653b\u51fb<\/h3>\n<p>\u751f\u65e5\u6096\u8bba\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u539f\u7406\u76f4\u63a5\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e<strong>\u751f\u65e5\u653b\u51fb<\/strong>\uff08birthday attack\uff09\u2014\u2014\u4e00\u79cd\u9488\u5bf9\u54c8\u5e0c\u51fd\u6570\u7684\u5bc6\u7801\u5206\u6790\u6280\u672f\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8en\u4f4d\u54c8\u5e0c\u51fd\u6570\uff0c\u66b4\u529b\u7834\u89e3\u5bfb\u627e\u7279\u5b9a\u78b0\u649e\u9700\u7ea6<strong>2^n<\/strong>\u6b21\u5c1d\u8bd5\uff0c\u4f46\u5229\u7528\u751f\u65e5\u6096\u8bba\u5bfb\u627e\u4efb\u610f\u78b0\u649e\u4ec5\u9700\u7ea6<strong>2^(n\/2)<\/strong>\u6b21\u2014\u2014\u8ba1\u7b97\u590d\u6742\u5ea6\u5448\u5e73\u65b9\u6839\u7ea7\u4e0b\u964d\u3002<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>\u54c8\u5e0c\u4f4d\u6570<\/th>\n<th>\u66b4\u529b\u7834\u89e3<\/th>\n<th>\u751f\u65e5\u653b\u51fb<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>64\u4f4d<\/td>\n<td>2^64<\/td>\n<td>2^32 (~40\u4ebf\u6b21)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>128\u4f4d(MD5)<\/td>\n<td>2^128<\/td>\n<td>2^64<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>256\u4f4d(SHA-256)<\/td>\n<td>2^256<\/td>\n<td>2^128<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><strong>\u5b9e\u9645\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a2012\u5e74\u53d1\u73b0\u7684Flame\u6076\u610f\u8f6f\u4ef6\u5229\u7528MD5\u78b0\u649e\u653b\u51fb\u4f2a\u9020\u6570\u5b57\u8bc1\u4e66\uff0c\u6210\u529f\u52ab\u6301SSL\/TLS\u901a\u4fe1\u3002\u6cd5\u6587\u8d44\u6599\u7279\u522b\u63d0\u5230WEP\u534f\u8bae\u7684\u81f4\u547d\u7f3a\u9677\uff1a\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4f7f\u7528104\u4f4d\u5bc6\u94a5\uff0c\u4f46\u4ec524\u4f4d\u521d\u59cb\u5316\u5411\u91cf\u610f\u5473\u7740\u7ea65,000\u6b21\u901a\u4fe1\u540e\u5c31\u670950%\u6982\u7387\u51fa\u73b0\u5bc6\u94a5\u91cd\u7528\u2014\u2014&#8221;\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u6027\u4ec5\u670924\u4f4d&#8221;\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u7814\u7a76<\/h3>\n<p><strong>Voracek, Tran\u548cFormann\uff082008\uff09<\/strong> \u5728\u300a\u611f\u77e5\u4e0e\u8fd0\u52a8\u6280\u80fd\u300b\u671f\u520a\u53d1\u8868\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e86721\u540d\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u672c\u79d1\u751f\u300139\u540d\u8d4c\u573a\u8bbf\u5ba2\u548c34\u540d\u8d4c\u573a\u5458\u5de5\u3002\u7ed3\u8bba\uff1a\u6240\u6709\u7fa4\u4f53\u90fd<strong>\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u9ad8\u4f30<\/strong>\u6240\u9700\u4eba\u6570\u3001<strong>\u4f4e\u4f30<\/strong>\u7ed9\u5b9a\u4eba\u6570\u7684\u91cd\u5408\u6982\u7387\u3002\u4ee4\u4eba\u610f\u5916\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8d4c\u573a\u4eba\u5458\uff08\u7406\u5e94\u66f4\u61c2\u6982\u7387\uff09\u8868\u73b0\u53cd\u800c\u6700\u5dee\u3002\u8868\u73b0\u8f83\u597d\u8005\u5f80\u5f80<strong>\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u66f4\u4e0d\u81ea\u4fe1<\/strong>\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u4e0e\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u5e38\u89c1\u6a21\u5f0f\u76f8\u53cd\u3002<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>\u7b2c\u4e8c\u90e8\u5206\uff1a\u8499\u63d0\u970d\u5c14\u95ee\u9898\u2014\u2014\u8ba9\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\u96c6\u4f53\u51fa\u4e11\u7684\u4e09\u6247\u95e8<\/h2>\n<h3>\u8d77\u6e90\uff1a\u4ece\u7535\u89c6\u8282\u76ee\u5230\u6570\u5b66\u7ecf\u5178<\/h3>\n<p>&#8220;\u8499\u63d0\u970d\u5c14\u95ee\u9898&#8221;\u5f97\u540d\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7535\u89c6\u8282\u76ee\u300a\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u505a\u4ea4\u6613\u300b\uff08<em>Let&#8217;s Make a Deal<\/em>\uff09\uff0c\u8be5\u8282\u76ee\u4e8e<strong>1963\u5e7412\u670830\u65e5<\/strong>\u9996\u64ad\uff0c\u7531\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u88d4\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba<strong>\u8499\u63d0\u00b7\u970d\u5c14<\/strong>\uff081921-2017\uff09\u4e3b\u6301\u957f\u8fbe\u6570\u5341\u5e74\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5c06\u6b64\u95ee\u9898\u6b63\u5f0f\u6570\u5b66\u5316\u7684\u662f<strong>\u53f2\u8482\u592b\u00b7\u585e\u5c14\u6587<\/strong>\uff08Steve Selvin\uff09\uff0c\u52a0\u5dde\u5927\u5b66\u4f2f\u514b\u5229\u5206\u6821\u751f\u7269\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u3002\u4ed6\u4e8e<strong>1975\u5e742\u6708<\/strong>\u5728\u300a\u7f8e\u56fd\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\u300b\u53d1\u8868\u4fe1\u51fd\u63d0\u51fa\u8be5\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5e76\u4e8e<strong>1975\u5e748\u6708<\/strong>\u7684\u540e\u7eed\u4fe1\u51fd\u4e2d\u9996\u6b21\u4f7f\u7528&#8221;\u8499\u63d0\u970d\u5c14\u95ee\u9898&#8221;\u8fd9\u4e00\u672f\u8bed\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u662f\u8be5\u540d\u79f0<strong>\u9996\u6b21\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u5b66\u672f\u51fa\u7248\u7269\u4e2d<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8499\u63d0\u00b7\u970d\u5c14\u672c\u4eba\u5b8c\u5168\u7406\u89e3\u8fd9\u4e00\u6982\u7387\u8c1c\u9898\u3002\u57281991\u5e74\u63a5\u53d7\u300a\u7ebd\u7ea6\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\u91c7\u8bbf\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u7528\u5fae\u578b\u7eb8\u677f\u95e8\u3001\u6c7d\u8f66\u94a5\u5319\u3001\u8461\u8404\u5e72\u548c\u8584\u8377\u7cd6\u4eb2\u81ea\u6f14\u793a\uff0c\u5e76\u89e3\u91ca\u9053\uff1a&#8221;\u4ed6\u4eec\u4ee5\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u90a3\u6247\u95e8\u7684\u80dc\u7387\u5df2\u5347\u81f3\u4e8c\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u65e0\u8bba\u6211\u51fa\u591a\u5c11\u94b1\u90fd\u4e0d\u613f\u6362\u95e8\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u5f00\u95e8\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u65bd\u52a0\u4e86\u538b\u529b\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a&#8217;\u4ea8\u5229\u00b7\u8a79\u59c6\u65af\u5f0f\u5f85\u9047&#8217;\u2014\u2014\u62e7\u7d27\u87ba\u4e1d\u7684\u827a\u672f\u3002&#8221;<\/p>\n<h3>1990\u5e74\u739b\u4e3d\u83b2\u00b7\u6c83\u65af\u00b7\u8428\u51e1\u7279\u4e89\u8bae\uff1a\u77e5\u8bc6\u5206\u5b50\u7684\u96c6\u4f53\u5931\u6001<\/h3>\n<p><strong>1990\u5e749\u67089\u65e5<\/strong>\uff0c\u300a\u5927\u6e38\u884c\u300b\uff08<em>Parade<\/em>\uff09\u6742\u5fd7&#8221;\u95ee\u739b\u4e3d\u83b2&#8221;\u4e13\u680f\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u8bfb\u8005\u514b\u96f7\u683c\u00b7F\u00b7\u60e0\u7279\u514b\u7684\u63d0\u95ee\uff1a\u5047\u8bbe\u4f60\u53c2\u52a0\u4e00\u4e2a\u8282\u76ee\uff0c\u9762\u524d\u6709\u4e09\u6247\u95e8\uff0c\u4e00\u6247\u540e\u9762\u662f\u6c7d\u8f66\uff0c\u53e6\u5916\u4e24\u6247\u540e\u9762\u662f\u5c71\u7f8a\u3002\u4f60\u9009\u62e91\u53f7\u95e8\uff0c\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\uff08\u77e5\u9053\u95e8\u540e\u60c5\u51b5\uff09\u6253\u5f00\u4e863\u53f7\u95e8\u9732\u51fa\u5c71\u7f8a\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u95ee\u4f60\u662f\u5426\u8981\u6362\u52302\u53f7\u95e8\u3002\u6362\u95e8\u5bf9\u4f60\u6709\u5229\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u739b\u4e3d\u83b2\u00b7\u6c83\u65af\u00b7\u8428\u51e1\u7279<\/strong>\u5f53\u65f6\u4ee5<strong>228\u7684\u667a\u5546<\/strong>\u88ab\u300a\u5409\u5c3c\u65af\u4e16\u754c\u7eaa\u5f55\u300b\u5217\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u667a\u5546\u6700\u9ad8\u8005\u3002\u5979\u7684\u56de\u7b54\u662f\uff1a<strong>\u5e94\u8be5\u6362\u95e8\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6247\u95e8\u7684\u80dc\u7387\u662f2\/3\uff0c\u800c\u539f\u6765\u90a3\u6247\u53ea\u67091\/3\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e00\u7b54\u6848\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u524d\u6240\u672a\u6709\u7684\u98ce\u66b4\u3002\u5979\u6536\u5230\u7ea6<strong>10,000\u5c01\u6765\u4fe1<\/strong>\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u8fd1<strong>1,000\u5c01\u6765\u81ea\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u6301\u6709\u8005<\/strong>\uff0c\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u58f0\u79f0\u5979\u9519\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u90e8\u5206\u535a\u58eb\u7684\u539f\u8bdd\uff08\u540e\u88ab\u8bc1\u660e\u662f\u9519\u8bef\u7684\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p><strong>\u4f5b\u7f57\u91cc\u8fbe\u5927\u5b66\u65af\u79d1\u7279\u00b7\u53f2\u5bc6\u65af\u535a\u58eb<\/strong>\uff1a&#8221;\u4f60\u5927\u9519\u7279\u9519\uff01\u8ba9\u6211\u89e3\u91ca\uff1a\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\u63ed\u5f00\u5c71\u7f8a\u540e\uff0c\u4f60\u7684\u80dc\u7387\u53d8\u6210\u4e8c\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u6362\u4e0d\u6362\uff0c\u6982\u7387\u76f8\u540c\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u6587\u76f2\u591f\u591a\u4e86\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u5168\u7403\u6700\u9ad8\u667a\u5546\u7684\u4eba\u518d\u4f20\u64ad\u66f4\u591a\u8c2c\u8bef\u3002\u771f\u4e22\u4eba\uff01&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><strong>\u4e54\u6cbb\u57ce\u5927\u5b66\u6570\u5b66\u6559\u6388E\u00b7\u96f7\u00b7\u535a\u535a\u535a\u58eb<\/strong>\uff1a&#8221;\u4f60\u5b8c\u5168\u9519\u4e86\u3002\u9700\u8981\u591a\u5c11\u6124\u6012\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\u624d\u80fd\u8ba9\u4f60\u6539\u53d8\u4e3b\u610f\uff1f&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><strong>\u4e54\u6cbb\u6885\u68ee\u5927\u5b66\u6570\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u8428\u514b\u65af\u535a\u58eb<\/strong>\uff08\u540e\u64a4\u56de\uff09\uff1a&#8221;\u4f60\u641e\u7838\u4e86\uff01&#8230;\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e13\u4e1a\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u6211\u975e\u5e38\u62c5\u5fe7\u516c\u4f17\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u7d20\u517b\u7f3a\u5931\u3002&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><strong>\u68d5\u6988\u6ee9\u521d\u7ea7\u5b66\u9662\u739b\u4e3d\u00b7\u7b80\u00b7\u65af\u8482\u5c14\u6559\u6388<\/strong>\uff1a&#8221;\u6211\u4eec\u6570\u5b66\u7cfb\u72e0\u72e0\u5632\u7b11\u4e86\u4f60\u4e00\u756a\u3002&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u300a\u5927\u6e38\u884c\u300b\u4e3a\u6b64\u95ee\u9898<strong>\u53f2\u65e0\u524d\u4f8b\u5730\u520a\u53d1\u4e86\u56db\u671f\u4e13\u680f<\/strong>\uff081990\u5e749\u6708\u81f31991\u5e747\u6708\uff09\u3002\u8428\u51e1\u7279\u547c\u5401\u5168\u7f8e\u8bfe\u5802\u8fdb\u884c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u9a8c\u8bc1\uff0c\u5927\u91cf\u5e08\u751f\u53cd\u9988\u8bc1\u5b9e\u4e86\u5979\u7684\u6b63\u786e\u3002<strong>1991\u5e747\u670821\u65e5<\/strong>\uff0c\u300a\u7ebd\u7ea6\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\u5934\u7248\u6587\u7ae0\u6700\u7ec8\u4e3a\u5979\u6b63\u540d\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4fdd\u7f57\u00b7\u57c3\u5c14\u5fb7\u4ec0\u7684\u6545\u4e8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u8fd9\u4f4d\u53d1\u8868\u8bba\u6587\u6570\u91cf\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u591a\u7684\u5308\u7259\u5229\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\uff081913-1996\uff09\u6700\u521d\u662f&#8221;\u7279\u522b\u6fc0\u70c8\u7684\u53cd\u5bf9\u8005&#8221;\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u9762\u5bf9\u4e25\u8c28\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u4ed6\u4ecd\u62d2\u7edd\u63a5\u53d7\u3002\u76f4\u5230<strong>1995\u5e74<\/strong>\uff0c\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\u5b89\u5fb7\u9c81\u00b7\u74e6\u5179\u7d22\u5c3c\u8fd0\u884c\u4e86<strong>100,000\u6b21\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u6a21\u62df<\/strong>\uff0c\u57c3\u5c14\u5fb7\u4ec0\u76ee\u7779\u7ed3\u679c\u540e\u624d&#8221;\u52c9\u5f3a\u4fe1\u670d&#8221;\u2014\u2014\u6b63\u5982\u53f2\u8482\u6587\u00b7\u5e73\u514b\u6240\u8bc4\u8bba\u7684\uff0c\u4ed6&#8221;\u8fdd\u80cc\u4e86\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u7075\u9b42\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u4eb2\u773c\u770b\u5230\u6e38\u620f\u53cd\u590d\u6a21\u62df\u540e\u624d\u88ab\u8bf4\u670d&#8221;\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u591a\u79cd\u89e3\u91ca\u8def\u5f84<\/h3>\n<p><strong>&#8220;100\u6247\u95e8&#8221;\u653e\u5927\u8bba\u8bc1<\/strong>\uff08\u8428\u51e1\u7279\u672c\u4eba\u63a8\u5e7f\uff09\uff1a\u60f3\u8c611,000,000\u6247\u95e8\uff0c\u4f60\u9009\u62e91\u53f7\u95e8\u540e\uff0c\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\u6253\u5f00999,998\u6247\u9732\u51fa\u5c71\u7f8a\uff0c\u53ea\u5269\u4e0b1\u53f7\u95e8\u548c777,777\u53f7\u95e8\u3002\u4f60\u4f1a\u6362\u5417\uff1f\u4f60\u6700\u521d\u9009\u4e2d\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u767e\u4e07\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u5269\u4e0b\u90a3\u6247\u95e8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f999,999\/1,000,000\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6982\u7387\u516c\u5f0f<\/strong>\uff1a\u8bbe C\u2081, C\u2082, C\u2083 \u5206\u522b\u8868\u793a\u6c7d\u8f66\u5728\u95e81\u30012\u30013\u540e\uff0cM\u2083\u8868\u793a\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\u6253\u5f00\u95e83\uff08\u5047\u8bbe\u4f60\u9009\u4e86\u95e81\uff09\u3002\u5173\u952e\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>P(M\u2083|C\u2081) = 1\/2\uff08\u6c7d\u8f66\u5728\u4f60\u9009\u7684\u95e8\u540e\uff0c\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\u968f\u673a\u9009\u5f00\u95e82\u62163\uff09<\/li>\n<li>P(M\u2083|C\u2082) = 1\uff08\u6c7d\u8f66\u5728\u95e82\uff0c\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\u5fc5\u987b\u5f00\u95e83\uff09<\/li>\n<li>P(M\u2083|C\u2083) = 0\uff08\u6c7d\u8f66\u5728\u95e83\uff0c\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\u4e0d\u80fd\u5f00\u5b83\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u5e94\u7528\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\uff1aP(C\u2082|M\u2083) = <strong>2\/3<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th><strong>\u5217\u4e3e\u6cd5\/\u51b3\u7b56\u6811<\/strong>\uff1a<\/th>\n<th>\u6c7d\u8f66\u4f4d\u7f6e<\/th>\n<th>\u4f60\u9009<\/th>\n<th>\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\u5f00<\/th>\n<th>\u575a\u6301\u7ed3\u679c<\/th>\n<th>\u6362\u95e8\u7ed3\u679c<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\u95e81<\/td>\n<td>\u95e81<\/td>\n<td>\u95e82\u62163<\/td>\n<td><strong>\u8d62<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>\u8f93<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u95e82<\/td>\n<td>\u95e81<\/td>\n<td>\u95e83<\/td>\n<td>\u8f93<\/td>\n<td><strong>\u8d62<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u95e83<\/td>\n<td>\u95e81<\/td>\n<td>\u95e82<\/td>\n<td>\u8f93<\/td>\n<td><strong>\u8d62<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><strong>\u7ed3\u8bba<\/strong>\uff1a\u575a\u6301\u8d621\/3\uff0c\u6362\u95e8\u8d622\/3\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u7ef4\u5ea6\uff1a\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4eba\u4eec\u62d2\u7edd\u6362\u95e8<\/h3>\n<p><strong>Saenen\u7b49\u4eba\uff082018\uff09<\/strong> \u5728\u300a\u6bd4\u5229\u65f6\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u300b\u53d1\u8868\u7cfb\u7edf\u7efc\u8ff0\uff0c\u8bc6\u522b\u51fa\u591a\u79cd\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u5dee\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>\u7b49\u6982\u7387\u504f\u5dee<\/strong>\uff1a\u770b\u5230\u4e24\u6247\u95e8\u5c31\u81ea\u52a8\u5047\u5b9a50\/50<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u73b0\u72b6\u504f\u5dee<\/strong>\uff1a\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u4fdd\u6301\u539f\u6709\u9009\u62e9<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u7980\u8d4b\u6548\u5e94<\/strong>\uff1a\u9ad8\u4f30\u5df2&#8221;\u62e5\u6709&#8221;\u7684\u95e8<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u9884\u671f\u540e\u6094<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u9884\u671f\u6362\u95e8\u540e\u8f93\u4f1a\u6bd4\u575a\u6301\u540e\u8f93\u66f4\u540e\u6094<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>\u7814\u7a76\u6570\u636e<\/strong>\uff1a\u4ec5<strong>13%<\/strong>\u7684\u53d7\u8bd5\u8005\u9009\u62e9\u6362\u95e8\uff1b\u8de8\u6587\u5316\u7814\u7a76\u663e\u793a<strong>79-87%<\/strong>\u7684\u4eba\u575a\u6301\u539f\u9009\u3002\u8ba4\u77e5\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u9a6c\u897f\u83ab\u00b7\u76ae\u4e9a\u7279\u5229-\u5e15\u5c14\u9a6c\u91cc\u5c3c\u8bc4\u8bba\uff1a&#8221;\u6ca1\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u7edf\u8ba1\u8c1c\u9898\u80fd\u5982\u6b64\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e8e\u611a\u5f04\u6240\u6709\u4eba&#8230;\u751a\u81f3\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e5f\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5730\u7ed9\u51fa\u9519\u8bef\u7b54\u6848\uff0c\u5e76\u575a\u6301\u5df1\u89c1\uff0c\u8fd8\u516c\u5f00\u62a8\u51fb\u7ed9\u51fa\u6b63\u786e\u7b54\u6848\u7684\u4eba\u3002&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u9e3d\u5b50\u4e0e\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u5bf9\u6bd4<\/strong>\uff08Herbranson &amp; Schroeder, 2010\uff09\uff1a\u7ecf\u8fc7\u8bad\u7ec3\uff0c\u9e3d\u5b50\u5b66\u4f1a\u4e86\u8fd1\u4e4e100%\u6362\u95e8\u7684\u6700\u4f18\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u800c\u4eba\u7c7b\u5373\u4f7f\u7ecf\u5386\u6570\u767e\u6b21\u8bd5\u9a8c\u4e5f\u5f88\u5c11\u8fbe\u5230\u4e00\u81f4\u6362\u95e8\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u4fe1\u5ff5\u66f4\u65b0\u7814\u7a76\uff1a\u6a21\u62df\u80fd\u6539\u53d8\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u5417\uff1f<\/h3>\n<p><strong>Petrocelli\u548cHarris\uff082011\uff09<\/strong> \u8ba9\u53d7\u8bd5\u8005\u8fdb\u884c60\u6b21\u8499\u63d0\u970d\u5c14\u8bd5\u9a8c\u5e76\u8bb0\u5f55\u601d\u7ef4\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002<strong>\u5173\u952e\u53d1\u73b0<\/strong>\uff1a\u5c3d\u7ba1\u53cd\u590d\u8bd5\u9a8c\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u59cb\u7ec8\u65e0\u6cd5\u5b66\u4f1a\u6b63\u786e\u89e3\u6cd5\u3002\u6362\u95e8\u540e\u5931\u8d25\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u601d\u7ef4\uff08&#8221;\u8981\u662f\u6211\u6ca1\u6362\u5c31\u597d\u4e86&#8221;\uff09\u6291\u5236\u4e86\u5b66\u4e60\u3002\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec<strong>\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e86\u6362\u95e8\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u9891\u7387<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7cfb\u7edf\u7efc\u8ff0\u7ed3\u8bba<\/strong>\uff08Saenen\u7b49\u4eba\uff0c2018\uff09\uff1a\u5728\u6240\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c<strong>\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u9879<\/strong>\u663e\u793a\u91cd\u590d\u7ecf\u9a8c\u80fd\u8ba9\u53d7\u8bd5\u8005<strong>\u5728\u6240\u6709\u8bd5\u9a8c\u4e2d\u4e00\u81f4\u6362\u95e8<\/strong>\u3002\u884c\u4e3a\u6539\u5584\uff08\u6362\u95e8\u9891\u7387\u589e\u52a0\uff09\u4e0e\u6982\u7387\u7406\u89e3\uff08\u6b63\u786e\u5224\u65ad2\/3\uff09\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u660e\u663e<strong>\u5206\u79bb<\/strong>\u2014\u2014\u4eba\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u5b66\u4f1a\u66f4\u9891\u7e41\u6362\u95e8\uff0c\u4f46\u5e76\u4e0d\u771f\u6b63\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8fd9\u662f\u6700\u4f18\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u91cd\u8981\u53d8\u4f53\uff1a\u89c4\u5219\u6539\u53d8\u65f6\u7b54\u6848\u4e5f\u53d8<\/h3>\n<p><strong>\u5982\u679c\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\u968f\u673a\u5f00\u95e8\uff08\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u6c7d\u8f66\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u7b54\u6848\u53d8\u4e3a<strong>50\/50<\/strong>\uff01\u8fd9\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a&#8221;\u8499\u63d0\u5760\u843d&#8221;\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u5f53\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\u4e0d\u77e5\u60c5\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u78b0\u5de7\u63ed\u793a\u5c71\u7f8a\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e8b\u5b9e\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\u2014\u2014\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u9009\u5bf9\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u66f4\u591a\u95e8<\/strong>\uff1an\u6247\u95e8\u65f6\uff0c\u6362\u95e8\u80dc\u7387 = (n-1)\/n\u3002100\u6247\u95e8\u6362\u95e8\u8d6299%\uff0c1000\u6247\u95e8\u6362\u95e8\u8d6299.9%\u3002<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>\u7b2c\u4e09\u90e8\u5206\uff1a\u6307\u6570\u589e\u957f\u2014\u2014\u4eba\u7c7b\u8ba4\u77e5\u7684\u81f4\u547d\u76f2\u533a<\/h2>\n<h3>\u7eb8\u5f20\u6298\u53e0\uff1a42\u6b21\u5230\u6708\u7403<\/h3>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e2a\u601d\u60f3\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5c55\u793a\u4e862^n\u589e\u957f\u7684\u60ca\u4eba\u529b\u91cf\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u4e00\u5f20\u6807\u51c6\u7eb8\u539a\u5ea6\u4e3a<strong>0.1\u6beb\u7c73<\/strong>\uff1a<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8ba1\u7b97\u9a8c\u8bc1<\/strong>\uff1a42\u6b21\u6298\u53e0\u540e\u539a\u5ea6 = 0.1mm \u00d7 2^42 = 0.1mm \u00d7 4,398,046,511,104 = <strong>439,804.65\u516c\u91cc<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5730\u6708\u5e73\u5747\u8ddd\u79bb<\/strong>\uff1a384,400\u516c\u91cc<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7ed3\u8bba<\/strong>\uff1a42\u6b21\u6298\u53e0<strong>\u786e\u5b9e\u8d85\u8fc7\u5730\u6708\u8ddd\u79bb<\/strong>\uff08439,805 &gt; 384,400\uff09\u2713<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>\u6298\u53e0\u6b21\u6570<\/th>\n<th>\u539a\u5ea6<\/th>\n<th>\u7b49\u6548<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>10\u6b21<\/td>\n<td>10.24\u5398\u7c73<\/td>\n<td>\u7ea6\u4e00\u672c\u4e66<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>20\u6b21<\/td>\n<td>104.86\u7c73<\/td>\n<td>\u8db3\u7403\u573a\u957f\u5ea6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>27\u6b21<\/td>\n<td>13.4\u516c\u91cc<\/td>\n<td>\u8d85\u8fc7\u73e0\u7a46\u6717\u739b\u5cf0(8.8km)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>42\u6b21<\/td>\n<td>439,805\u516c\u91cc<\/td>\n<td>\u5230\u8fbe\u6708\u7403<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>50\u6b21<\/td>\n<td>1.126\u4ebf\u516c\u91cc<\/td>\n<td>\u63a5\u8fd1\u592a\u9633(1.496\u4ebfkm)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>103\u6b21<\/td>\n<td>\u8d85\u8fc7\u53ef\u89c2\u6d4b\u5b87\u5b99\u76f4\u5f84<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h3>\u7269\u7406\u6781\u9650\u4e0e\u5e03\u91cc\u7279\u59ae\u00b7\u52a0\u5229\u6587\u7684\u8bb0\u5f55<\/h3>\n<p>\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u65e0\u6cd5\u6298\u53e0\u8d85\u8fc77-8\u6b21\uff1f\u6bcf\u6b21\u6298\u53e0\uff0c\u7eb8\u5f20\u539a\u5ea6\u7ffb\u500d\u800c\u8868\u9762\u79ef\u51cf\u534a\uff1b\u6570\u6b21\u540e\uff0c\u53e0\u5c42\u6bd4\u7eb8\u5f20\u672c\u8eab\u8fd8\u5bbd\uff0c\u7269\u7406\u5e94\u529b\u8d85\u8fc7\u6750\u6599\u6781\u9650\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>2002\u5e741\u670827\u65e5<\/strong>\uff0c\u52a0\u5229\u798f\u5c3c\u4e9a\u5dde\u6ce2\u83ab\u7eb3\u5e02\u7684\u9ad8\u4e2d\u751f<strong>\u5e03\u91cc\u7279\u59ae\u00b7\u52a0\u5229\u6587<\/strong>\uff08Britney Gallivan\uff09\u521b\u9020\u5386\u53f2\uff1a\u5979\u6210\u529f\u5c06\u4e00\u5377<strong>1,219\u7c73\u957f\u7684\u536b\u751f\u7eb8<\/strong>\u6298\u53e0\u4e86<strong>12\u6b21<\/strong>\u2014\u2014\u6210\u4e3a\u53f2\u4e0a\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u8fbe\u52309\u300110\u300111\u548c12\u6b21\u6298\u53e0\u7684\u4eba\u3002\u6574\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5728\u8d2d\u7269\u4e2d\u5fc3\u8d70\u5eca\u8fdb\u884c\uff0c\u8017\u65f67\u5c0f\u65f6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5979\u63a8\u5bfc\u51fa\u4e86\u6298\u53e0\u516c\u5f0f\uff1a<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5355\u5411\u6298\u53e0<\/strong>\uff1aL = (\u03c0t\/6)(2^n + 4)(2^n &#8211; 1)<\/p>\n<p>\u5176\u4e2dL\u4e3a\u6240\u9700\u6700\u5c0f\u7eb8\u957f\uff0ct\u4e3a\u7eb8\u539a\uff0cn\u4e3a\u6298\u53e0\u6b21\u6570\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5173\u952e\u6d1e\u89c1<\/strong>\uff1a\u989d\u5916\u6298\u53e0\u4e00\u6b21\u9700\u8981\u7ea6<strong>\u56db\u500d<\/strong>\uff08\u800c\u975e\u4e24\u500d\uff09\u7684\u7eb8\u5f20\u2014\u2014\u56e0\u4e3a\u7eb8\u5f20\u65e2\u53d8\u539a\u53c8\u53d8\u7a84\u3002\u5409\u5c3c\u65af\u4e16\u754c\u7eaa\u5f55\u6b63\u5f0f\u8ba4\u8bc1\u4e86\u5979\u7684\u6210\u5c31\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u9ea6\u7c92\u4e0e\u68cb\u76d8\uff1a1,840\u4eac\u7c92\u7684\u6559\u8bad<\/h3>\n<p><strong>\u5386\u53f2\u8d77\u6e90<\/strong>\uff1a\u6700\u65e9\u8bb0\u8f7d\u89c1\u4e8e\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u5b66\u8005<strong>\u4f0a\u672c\u00b7\u54c8\u91cc\u574e<\/strong>\uff08Ibn Khallikan, 1211-1282\uff09\u4e8e1256\u5e74\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u3002\u4f20\u8bf4\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u53e4\u5370\u5ea6\uff1a\u5a46\u7f57\u95e8\u667a\u8005<strong>\u897f\u8428<\/strong>\uff08Sissa\/Sessa\uff09\u4e3a\u56fd\u738b\u53d1\u660e\u4e86\u8c61\u68cb\u524d\u8eab&#8221;\u6070\u56fe\u5170\u5361&#8221;\u3002\u56fd\u738b\u95ee\u4ed6\u60f3\u8981\u4ec0\u4e48\u8d4f\u8d50\uff0c\u897f\u8428\u8bf7\u6c42\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\u683c\u653e1\u7c92\u9ea6\u5b50\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u683c2\u7c92\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e09\u683c4\u7c92\u2026\u2026\u6bcf\u683c\u7ffb\u500d\u81f3\u7b2c64\u683c\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6570\u5b66\u8ba1\u7b97<\/strong>\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u603b\u6570 = 2^64 &#8211; 1 = <strong>18,446,744,073,709,551,615\u7c92<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>\u7ea6\u7b49\u4e8e<strong>14\u4e07\u4ebf\u516c\u5428<\/strong>\u5c0f\u9ea6<\/li>\n<li>\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5168\u7403<strong>5,000\u5e74<\/strong>\u7684\u5c0f\u9ea6\u4ea7\u91cf<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>\u5173\u952e\u6d1e\u89c1<\/strong>\uff1a\u5230\u7b2c32\u683c\uff08\u68cb\u76d8\u4e00\u534a\uff09\u65f6\uff0c\u4ec5\u6709\u7ea640\u4ebf\u7c92\uff08~10\u4e07\u516c\u65a4\uff09\u3002<strong>\u7b2c\u4e8c\u534a\u68cb\u76d8\u5305\u542b99.99999999%\u7684\u5168\u90e8\u9ea6\u7c92\uff01<\/strong> \u8fd9\u5b8c\u7f8e\u8be0\u91ca\u4e86\u6307\u6570\u589e\u957f\u7684&#8221;\u540e\u534a\u7a0b\u6548\u5e94&#8221;\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6cd5\u6587\u6765\u6e90\u7279\u522b\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u4f46\u4e01\u5728\u300a\u795e\u66f2\u00b7\u5929\u5802\u7bc7\u300b\u4e2d\u5f15\u7528\u8fd9\u4e00\u6982\u5ff5\u63cf\u8ff0&#8221;\u5929\u5802\u5149\u8292\u7684\u4e30\u76db&#8221;\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u7761\u83b2\u6096\u8bba\uff1a\u7b2c29\u5929\u7684\u8b66\u793a<\/h3>\n<p><strong>\u7ecf\u5178\u8868\u8ff0<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e00\u682a\u7761\u83b2\u6bcf\u5929\u9762\u79ef\u7ffb\u500d\uff0c\u7b2c30\u5929\u8986\u76d6\u6574\u4e2a\u6c60\u5858\u3002\u95ee\uff1a\u4f55\u65f6\u8986\u76d6\u4e00\u534a\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u76f4\u89c9\u7b54\u6848<\/strong>\uff08\u9519\u8bef\uff09\uff1a\u7b2c15\u5929<br \/>\n<strong>\u6b63\u786e\u7b54\u6848<\/strong>\uff1a<strong>\u7b2c29\u5929<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u6307\u6570\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u5371\u9669\u7279\u6027\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u7b2c24\u5929\uff1a\u4ec5\u8986\u76d6\u6c60\u5858\u7684<strong>1%<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>\u7b2c28\u5929\uff1a\u4ec5\u8986\u76d6<strong>25%<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>\u7b2c29\u5929\uff1a\u8986\u76d650%<\/li>\n<li>\u7b2c30\u5929\uff1a\u5b8c\u5168\u8986\u76d6<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>\u6cd5\u56fd\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u5bb6\u963f\u5c14\u8d1d\u00b7\u96c5\u5361\u5c14<\/strong>\uff08Albert Jacquard, 1925-2013\uff09\u5728\u5176\u8457\u4f5c\u300a\u7761\u83b2\u65b9\u7a0b\u300b\uff08<em>L&#8217;\u00c9quation du n\u00e9nuphar<\/em>, 1998\uff09\u4e2d\u5c06\u6b64\u6bd4\u55bb\u4e0e\u7f57\u9a6c\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u7684\u300a\u589e\u957f\u7684\u6781\u9650\u300b\u62a5\u544a\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\uff1a\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u7b2c27\u5929\uff0c\u4e00\u682a&#8221;\u7761\u83b2&#8221;\u53d1\u73b0\u4e863\u4e2a\u65b0\u6c60\u5858\uff08\u56db\u500d\u7a7a\u95f4\uff09\uff0c\u4e5f\u4ec5\u80fd\u5c06\u706d\u4ea1\u63a8\u8fdf\u5230\u7b2c32\u5929\u2014\u2014\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u6307\u6570\u589e\u957f\u95ee\u9898\u4e2d&#8221;\u7559\u7ed9\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u65f6\u95f4&#8221;\u4e4b\u7a00\u7f3a\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u7231\u56e0\u65af\u5766\u590d\u5229\u540d\u8a00\uff1a\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u675c\u64b0\u7684<\/h3>\n<p><strong>\u6d41\u4f20\u7248\u672c<\/strong>\uff1a&#8221;\u590d\u5229\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u7b2c\u516b\u5927\u5947\u8ff9\u3002\u7406\u89e3\u5b83\u7684\u4eba\u8d5a\u53d6\u5b83\uff0c\u4e0d\u7406\u89e3\u7684\u4eba\u652f\u4ed8\u5b83\u3002&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4e8b\u5b9e\u6838\u67e5<\/strong>\uff08Quote Investigator\u3001Snopes\uff09\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>\u6ca1\u6709\u5b9e\u8d28\u8bc1\u636e<\/strong>\u8868\u660e\u7231\u56e0\u65af\u5766\u66fe\u8bf4\u8fc7\u6b64\u8bdd<\/li>\n<li>\u6700\u65e9\u5c06\u6b64\u8bed\u5f52\u4e8e\u7231\u56e0\u65af\u5766\u7684\u8bb0\u5f55\u51fa\u73b0\u5728<strong>1976\u5e74<\/strong>\u2014\u2014\u7231\u56e0\u65af\u5766\u53bb\u4e1621\u5e74\u540e<\/li>\n<li>&#8220;\u7b2c\u516b\u5927\u5947\u8ff9&#8221;\u5f62\u5bb9\u590d\u5229\u7684\u8bf4\u6cd5\u6700\u65e9\u51fa\u73b0\u5728<strong>1925\u5e74<\/strong>\u514b\u5229\u592b\u5170\u4e00\u4efd\u94f6\u884c\u5e7f\u544a\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u533f\u540d<\/li>\n<li>\u8be5\u8bed\u5f55\u4e5f\u88ab\u5f52\u4e8e\u6d1b\u514b\u83f2\u52d2\u3001\u7f57\u65af\u67f4\u5c14\u5fb7\u3001\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u7b49\u4eba\uff0c\u5747\u65e0\u53ef\u9760\u6765\u6e90<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>\u5b66\u672f\u8bc4\u4f30<\/strong>\uff1a&#8221;\u6211\u4eec\u6000\u7591\u8fd9\u4e00\u5173\u4e8e\u590d\u5229\u529b\u91cf\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u662f\u76f8\u5f53\u73b0\u4ee3\u7684\u53d1\u660e\uff0c\u88ab\u8ffd\u6eaf\u6027\u5730\u585e\u8fdb\u67d0\u4f4d\u5df2\u6545\u540d\u4eba\u5634\u91cc\u4ee5\u589e\u52a0\u8bf4\u670d\u529b\u3002&#8221;<\/p>\n<h3>\u6469\u5c14\u5b9a\u5f8b\uff1a\u6b63\u5728\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u4f46\u672a\u6b7b\u4ea1<\/h3>\n<p><strong>\u539f\u59cb\u9884\u6d4b<\/strong>\uff081965\uff09\uff1a\u6208\u767b\u00b7\u6469\u5c14\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u82af\u7247\u6676\u4f53\u7ba1\u6570\u91cf\u6bcf\u5e74\u7ffb\u500d\uff1b1975\u5e74\u4fee\u8ba2\u4e3a\u6bcf\u4e24\u5e74\u7ffb\u500d\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>2024-2025\u5e74\u73b0\u72b6<\/strong>\uff1a<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>\u89c2\u70b9<\/th>\n<th>\u6765\u6e90<\/th>\n<th>\u8bc4\u4f30<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>&#8220;\u5df2\u6b7b&#8221;<\/td>\n<td>\u82f1\u4f1f\u8fbeCEO\u9ec4\u4ec1\u52cb(2024)<\/td>\n<td>&#8220;\u6469\u5c14\u5b9a\u5f8b\u5df2\u6b7b&#8221;<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>&#8220;\u4ecd\u6709\u6548&#8221;<\/td>\n<td>\u82f1\u7279\u5c14CEO\u5e15\u7279\u00b7\u57fa\u8f9b\u683c(2022)<\/td>\n<td>\u53cd\u9a73\u9ec4\u4ec1\u52cb<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>&#8220;\u653e\u7f13&#8221;<\/td>\n<td>\u57fa\u8f9b\u683c(2023)<\/td>\n<td>&#8220;\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u63a5\u8fd1\u6bcf\u4e09\u5e74\u7ffb\u500d&#8221;<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>&#8220;\u8fd8\u67096-8\u5e74&#8221;<\/td>\n<td>AMD CTO\u9a6c\u514b\u00b7\u5e15\u73c0\u9a6c\u65af\u7279<\/td>\n<td>\u9884\u671f\u6301\u7eed\u76f8\u5173<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><strong>\u6280\u672f\u91cc\u7a0b\u7891<\/strong>\uff1a2025\u5e74\uff0c\u82f1\u4f1f\u8fbeGB202 GPU\u62e5\u6709922\u4ebf\u6676\u4f53\u7ba1\u3002\u82f1\u7279\u5c141.8nm\u82af\u7247\u5df2\u6295\u4ea7\uff0c1.4nm\u6b63\u5728\u7814\u53d1\u3002\u7269\u7406\u6781\u9650\u903c\u8fd1\u539f\u5b50\u5c3a\u5ea6\uff1b\u66ff\u4ee3\u65b9\u6848\u5305\u62ec3D\u5806\u53e0\u3001\u5c0f\u82af\u7247\uff08chiplets\uff09\u548c\u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u4e0eR\u2080\uff1a\u6307\u6570\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u60e8\u75db\u6559\u8bad<\/h3>\n<p><strong>\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u6570R\u2080<\/strong>\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u5728\u5b8c\u5168\u6613\u611f\u4eba\u7fa4\u4e2d\u5e73\u5747\u4f20\u67d3\u7684\u4eba\u6570\u3002R\u2080 &gt; 1\u65f6\u75ab\u60c5\u5448\u6307\u6570\u6269\u6563\uff0cR\u2080 &lt; 1\u65f6\u75ab\u60c5\u6d88\u9000\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>COVID-19\u65e9\u671fR\u2080\u4f30\u8ba1<\/strong>\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u4e16\u536b\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff082020\u5e741\u6708\uff09\uff1a1.4-2.5<\/li>\n<li>\u5e1d\u56fd\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\uff1a1.5-3.5<\/li>\n<li>\u90e8\u5206\u7814\u7a76\uff08\u542b\u8d85\u7ea7\u4f20\u64ad\uff09\uff1a4.7-11.4<\/li>\n<li>\u7f8e\u56fd43\u57ce\u5e02\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570\uff1a1.82<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>\u6cd5\u56fd\u6570\u636e<\/strong>\uff08INRAE\u3001\u53c2\u8bae\u9662\u79d1\u6280\u8bc4\u4f30\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\uff09\uff1a\u5c01\u57ce\u524dR\u2080\u7ea63.3-3.4\uff0c\u5c01\u57ce\u671f\u95f4\u964d\u81f30.5-0.7\uff08\u4e0b\u964d\u7ea685%\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u6307\u6570\u589e\u957f\u504f\u5dee\uff1a\u666e\u904d\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u7f3a\u9677<\/h3>\n<p><strong>\u5b66\u672f\u57fa\u7840<\/strong>\uff1aWagenaar\u548cSagaria\uff081975, 1979\uff09\u5728\u300a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u62a5\u300b\u53d1\u8868\u7684&#8221;\u6c60\u5858-\u6d6e\u840d\u95ee\u9898&#8221;\u7cfb\u5217\u7814\u7a76\u9996\u6b21\u7cfb\u7edf\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e86\u4eba\u7c7b\u4f4e\u4f30\u6307\u6570\u589e\u957f\u7684\u503e\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Stango\u548cZinman<\/strong>\u5728\u300a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u6742\u5fd7\u300b\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff1a\u5b58\u5728\u6307\u6570\u589e\u957f\u504f\u5dee\uff08EGB\uff09\u7684\u4eba<strong>\u501f\u8d37\u8fc7\u591a\u3001\u50a8\u84c4\u8fc7\u5c11<\/strong>\u2014\u2014\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f4e\u4f30\u503a\u52a1\u589e\u957f\u3001\u4e5f\u4f4e\u4f30\u590d\u5229\u6536\u76ca\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Levy\u548cTasoff\uff082017\uff09<\/strong> \u53d1\u73b0\u504f\u5dee\u6700\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u4eba\u5f80\u5f80<strong>\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u6700\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1<\/strong>\u2014\u2014\u53cc\u91cd\u8ba4\u77e5\u9677\u9631\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>COVID-19\u76f8\u5173\u7814\u7a76<\/strong>\uff1aCiccione\u7b49\u4eba\uff082022\uff09\u5728\u300a\u8ba4\u77e5\u300b\u671f\u520a\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff08N=521\uff09\u8bc1\u5b9e\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u75ab\u60c5\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u4ecd\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5730\u5728\u56fe\u8868\u4e2d\u8bef\u5224\u6307\u6570\u589e\u957f\u3002\u5bf9\u6570\u5750\u6807\u53ef\u6539\u5584\u5bf9\u589e\u957f\u8d8b\u52bf\u7684\u8bc6\u522b\uff0c\u4f46\u4f1a\u727a\u7272\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728\u6307\u6570\u76f4\u89c9\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u6587\u5316\uff1f<\/h3>\n<p><strong>\u7b54\u6848\u662f\u5426\u5b9a\u7684<\/strong>\u3002Keren\uff081983\uff09\u5728\u300a\u611f\u77e5\u4e0e\u5fc3\u7406\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u300b\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u6587\u5316\u5b58\u5728\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u4f46\u6307\u6570\u589e\u957f\u504f\u5dee\u5728\u6240\u6709\u88ab\u7814\u7a76\u7fa4\u4f53\u4e2d<strong>\u666e\u904d\u5b58\u5728<\/strong>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u504f\u5dee\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6839\u690d\u4e8e\u4eba\u7c7b\u8fdb\u5316\u53f2\u2014\u2014\u7ebf\u6027\u601d\u7ef4\u5728\u751f\u5b58\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\u66f4\u6709\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6539\u5584\u6307\u6570\u76f4\u89c9\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u5305\u62ec\uff1a\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u6559\u80b2\u6c34\u5e73\u3001\u9488\u5bf9\u6307\u6570\u6982\u5ff5\u7684\u4e13\u95e8\u8bad\u7ec3\u3001\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0e\u6307\u6570\u73b0\u8c61\u6253\u4ea4\u9053\u7684\u804c\u4e1a\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff08\u5982\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u5206\u6790\u5e08\uff09\u3002\u4f46\u5373\u4f7f\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u504f\u5dee\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u5b8c\u5168\u6d88\u9664\u3002<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>\u4e94\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u89e3\u7b54<\/h2>\n<p><strong>1. \u6709\u7814\u7a76\u8003\u5bdf\u4eba\u4eec\u5728\u770b\u5230\u8499\u63d0\u970d\u5c14\u6a21\u62df\u540e\u591a\u5feb\u66f4\u65b0\u4fe1\u5ff5\u5417\uff1f<\/strong>\n\u662f\u7684\u3002Petrocelli\u548cHarris\uff082011\uff09\u4ee5\u53caSaenen\u7b49\u4eba\uff082018\uff09\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u7efc\u8ff0\u663e\u793a\uff1a\u884c\u4e3a\u6539\u5584\uff08\u6362\u95e8\u9891\u7387\u589e\u52a0\uff09\u4e0e\u6982\u7387\u7406\u89e3\uff08\u6b63\u786e\u5224\u65ad2\/3\u6982\u7387\uff09\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728<strong>\u5206\u79bb<\/strong>\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u7ecf\u5386\u6570\u767e\u6b21\u8bd5\u9a8c\uff0c\u53d7\u8bd5\u8005\u4e5f\u5f88\u5c11\u5728\u6240\u6709\u8bd5\u9a8c\u4e2d\u4e00\u81f4\u6362\u95e8\uff0c\u4e5f\u5f88\u5c11\u7ed9\u51fa\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5224\u65ad\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>2. \u6700\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u751f\u65e5\u91cd\u5408\u9a8c\u8bc1\u8bb0\u5f55\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f<\/strong>\nFIFA\u4e16\u754c\u676f\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u6700\u4f73\u81ea\u7136\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff1a2014\u5e74\u4e16\u754c\u676f32\u652f\u7403\u961f\u5404\u670923\u540d\u7403\u5458\uff0c\u6070\u597d\u6709<strong>16\u652f\uff0850%\uff09<\/strong> \u5b58\u5728\u751f\u65e5\u91cd\u5408\u2014\u2014\u4e0e\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u6d4b\u768450.73%\u60ca\u4eba\u543b\u5408\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>3. \u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728\u6307\u6570\u76f4\u89c9\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u6587\u5316\u6216\u6559\u80b2\u4f53\u7cfb\uff1f<\/strong>\n\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u73b0\u4efb\u4f55\u6587\u5316\u5929\u751f\u5177\u6709\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u6307\u6570\u76f4\u89c9\u3002\u8be5\u504f\u5dee\u662f<strong>\u666e\u904d\u4eba\u7c7b\u8ba4\u77e5\u7279\u5f81<\/strong>\u3002\u6570\u5b66\u6559\u80b2\u53ef\u4ee5\u51cf\u8f7b\u4f46\u65e0\u6cd5\u6d88\u9664\u504f\u5dee\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>4. \u8fd9\u4e9b\u6096\u8bba\u5728\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u626e\u6f14\u4ec0\u4e48\u89d2\u8272\uff1f<\/strong>\n\u751f\u65e5\u6096\u8bba\u9996\u6b21\u53d1\u8868\u4e8e\u51af\u00b7\u7c73\u585e\u65af1939\u5e74\u7684\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u800c\u51af\u00b7\u7c73\u585e\u65af\u672c\u4eba\u662f\u6982\u7387\u8bba&#8221;\u9891\u7387\u5b66\u6d3e&#8221;\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u5960\u57fa\u4eba\u3002\u8499\u63d0\u970d\u5c14\u95ee\u9898\u5219\u6210\u4e3a\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u63a8\u7406\u6559\u5b66\u7684\u7ecf\u5178\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u6df1\u523b\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u5982\u4f55\u98a0\u8986\u76f4\u89c9\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>5. 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\/>\n<p><em>\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u7bc7\u7ea6\u7a3f<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4e3b\u8981\u5b66\u672f\u6765\u6e90<\/strong>\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>von Mises, R. (1939). <em>Revue de la facult\u00e9 des sciences de l&#8217;Universit\u00e9 d&#8217;Istanbul<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Selvin, S. (1975). <em>The American Statistician<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Voracek, M. et al. (2008). <em>Perceptual and Motor Skills<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Saenen, L. et al. (2018). <em>Psychologica Belgica<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Wagenaar, W.A. &amp; Sagaria, S. (1975, 1979). <em>Acta Psychologica<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Gerville-R\u00e9ache, L. (2015). <em>HAL Archives<\/em>, Universit\u00e9 de Bordeaux<\/li>\n<li>CNRS Images des Math\u00e9matiques (2022). DOI: 10.60868\/s04v-0b34<\/li>\n<li>Ciccione, L. et al. (2022). <em>Cognition<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u4eba\u7c7b\u5927\u8111\u5929\u751f\u65e0\u6cd5\u51c6\u786e\u4f30\u8ba1\u6982\u7387\u548c\u6307\u6570\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u8ba4\u77e5\u7f3a\u9677\u5df2\u88ab\u4e25\u8c28\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u7814\u7a76\u53cd\u590d\u9a8c\u8bc1\u3002 \u4ece\u4ec5\u970023\u4eba\u5c31\u80fd\u8ba9\u751f\u65e5\u91cd\u5408\u6982\u7387\u8d85\u8fc750%\u7684&#8221;\u751f\u65e5\u6096\u8bba&#8221;&hellip;<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-67","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-3","category-7"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jamesshare.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jamesshare.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jamesshare.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jamesshare.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jamesshare.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=67"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/jamesshare.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":69,"href":"https:\/\/jamesshare.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67\/revisions\/69"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jamesshare.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=67"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jamesshare.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=67"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jamesshare.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=67"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}